Volume 10, Number 4, October – December 2008
New issue of Insight Turkey is now available
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research is pleased to announce the publication of the October – December 2008 issue of its quarterly journal, Insight Turkey .
Insight Turkey , Volume 10, Number 4, October – December 2008
TURKEY AND THE EU: STILL COMMITTED?
A NEW COLD WAR IN THE CAUCASUS
CYPRUS: SOLUTION OR SEPARATION?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Commentaries
Common Values and Common Interests? The Bush Legacy in US-Turkish Relations
[Full text available free online]
Mark R. Parris, pp. 5-14
Turkey’s Troubles in the Caucasus
Michael A. Reynolds, pp. 15-23
Future of Energy Transportation in Eurasia after the Georgia Crisis
Saltanat Berdikeeva, pp. 25-34
Articles
Turkey-EU Relations: Beyond the Current Stalemate
Ziya Onis, pp. 35-50
Turkey and the EU: Democratization, Civil-Military Relations, and the Cyprus Issue
Kivanc Ulusoy, pp. 51-76
Explaining Transformation of Turkish Civil Society in the EU Accession Process
Ahmet Arabaci, pp. 77-93
Trauma, Identity and Search for a Solution in Cyprus
Vamik Volkan, pp. 95-110
Cyprus: The Belgian ‘Tool Box’ Revisited
M. Ergun Olgun, Dirk Rochtus, pp. 111-134
Dealing with Iran : Confrontation or Negotiation?
Mahmood Monshipouri, Banafsheh Keynoush, pp. 135-157
Book Reviews
Sina Aksin, Turkey from Empire to Revolutionary Republic: The Emergence of the Turkish Nation from 1789 to Present
Renée Worringer & Istar Gozaydin, p. 160 & 163
Sam Kaplan, The Pedagogical State Education and the Politics of National Culture in Post-1980 Turkey
Seyfi Kenan, p. 166
Baki Tezcan and Karl K. Barbir (eds.), Identity and Identity Formation in the Ottoman World, A Volume of Essays in Honor of Norman Itzkowitz
Nur Bilge Criss, p. 170
Nathalie Karagiannis (ed.), European Solidarity
Lars Magnusson, p. 172
Olivier Roy, Secularism Confronts Islam
Talip Kucukcan, p. 174
Zachary Shore , Breeding Bin Ladens: America , Islam and the Future of Europe
Tahir Abbas, p. 176
Adeeb Khalid, Islam after Communism: Religion and Politics in Central Asia
Akiko Kurata, p. 178
ABSTRACTS
Commentaries
Common Values and Common Interests? The Bush Legacy in US-Turkish Relations
Mark R. Parris
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 5-14
AMERICAN and Turkish leaders typically describe ties between the U.S. and Turkey as based on “common values and interests.” Yet given that the Bush administration’ s relationship with Turkey has been marked by dysfunction and crisis, is that still true? A tendency to see Turkey as a function of Washington’s big idea of the moment, insensitivity to a broadening perception in Turkey of U.S. disregard for Turkish interests, inaction in the face of PKK terror, weak leadership on energy security, and schizophrenia toward Turkey’s internal politics have left U.S.–Turkish relations worse than when George W. Bush came to office. If U.S. and Turkish interests remain largely convergent at the strategic level, a more independent Turkish diplomacy will likely be part of the Bush legacy. As for “common values,” there is reason to hope that the real damage done to mutual perceptions is reversible.
Turkey’s Troubles in the Caucasus
Michael A. Reynolds
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 15-23
INCREASING numbers of Turks have come to recognize that their country’s traditionally hesitant and circumspect foreign policy no longer serves its interests, and is incommensurate with Turkey ’s regional weight. Accordingly, the governing Justice and Development Party has attempted to shed that tradition by seeking to engage Turkey ’s neighbors proactively in recent years. In the Caucasus, Ankara has taken steps that may lead to the normalization of relations with Yerevan and the breaking of the stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russo-Georgian War of 2008, however, demonstrates that Turkish diplomacy faces a severe test for which it may not be prepared. The war revealed that old institutional practices continue to constrain Turkey ’s diplomacy; moreover, the war restored Russia to the position of spoiler in the Caucasus . The return of Russia may mean that Turkey ’s new diplomacy will be too little, too late.
Future of Energy Transportation in Eurasia after the Georgia Crisis
Saltanat Berdikeeva
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 25-34
GEORGIA’S military gamble in South Ossetia in August 2008 opened a Pandora’s Box of misfortunes. Tbilisi is now faced with the loss of its breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, meanwhile creating a potential opportunity for Russia to assume a much-coveted control over the energy transit routes passing through Georgia . While the conflict has further spoiled the relations between the West and Russia , setting in motion stiffer competition between the two to secure the energy sources of Central Asia and Azerbaijan , the pragmatic calculations of the players involved in the Eurasian energy game may eventually change the tone of the game. With unresolved issues surrounding doubts over the sufficiency of energy supplies and the availability of means to deliver them from Central Asia and the Caucasus to Europe, Russia ’s preeminent position as a supplier of energy to the West will be maintained.
Articles
Turkey-EU Relations: Beyond the Current Stalemate
Ziya Onis
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 35-50
THE prospects for Turkey ’s ambitions for full EU membership do not appear to be very bright in the current conjuncture. The “grand coalition for special partnership” appears to be firmly entrenched. With key chapters for negotiation already suspended what is likely to happen is that the government in power is likely to pursue a loose Europeanization agenda of gradual reforms falling considerably short of deep commitment for full-membership. The paper investigates the underlying reasons for the decline of enthusiasm for EU membership following the golden age of Europeanization and reforms during the early years of the AK Party government. The article also points to domestic and external developments which may help to reverse the current stalemate and, hence, ends with an optimistic note concerning the future of Turkey-EU relations.
Turkey and the EU: Democratization, Civil-Military Relations, and the Cyprus Issue
Kivanc Ulusoy
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 51-76
THE paper analyzes Turkey ’s democratization efforts between 2004 and 2008. In addition to the challenges that the EU accession process brings to the Turkish political structure, an assessment of the current impasse of Turkey’s democratization along the EU accession process is made with respect to the detailed analysis of two major issues: the Cyprus issue and civil-military relations. With an eye to studying the EU’s impact on the domestic politics of accession countries with special reference to Turkey , the paper concentrates on the current government’s performance over the past three years in EU accession negotiations, showing how this immediate experience reveals the main problematical issues of Turkey-EU relations under these two headings. The concluding remarks focus on two crucial problems of the post-2004 period in Turkey : the sustainability of the reform process and the importance of the time factor in evaluating the EU’s leverage on
democratization.
Explaining Transformation of Turkish Civil Society in the EU Accession Process
Ahmet Arabaci
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 77-93
THIS study investigates the relationship between the announcement of Turkey ’s EU candidacy status at the EU’s Helsinki Summit in 1999, and the development and transformation of Turkish civil society organizations (CSOs). It is argued that theories of historical institutionalism and rational choice institutionalism provides a useful framework for explaining the changes that took place in the number and institutional structures of Turkish CSOs. Historical institutionalism helps explain how the EU’s affirmation of Turkey ’s EU candidacy has served as a critical juncture for the evolution of path dependency for Turkish CSOs. The economic reforms and democratization driven by Turkey ’s accession process are given special attention in this respect. Rational choice institutionalism will be employed to explain structural transformations within Turkish CSOs, and their considerable dependence on the funds provided by the EU.
Trauma, Identity and Search for a Solution in Cyprus
Vamik Volkan
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 95-110
MASSIVE traumas at the hands of “enemies” affect both individuals and societies for decades. For the Cypriot Turks, their massive trauma started in 1963-1964 when they were forced to live in subhuman conditions in enclaves geographically limited to three percent of the island for eleven years. What happened during the summer of 1974 obviously traumatized the Cypriot Greeks too on a massive scale. Psychoanalysts who have studied the trans-generational transmission of massive social trauma inform us that if the impact of such trauma is denied or repressed, it will still manifest itself in various ways in new generations. The “therapeutic” way of dealing with previous generations’ massive social traumas is not to deny or repress what happened to the ancestors, but to be aware of the history. There could be no solution on the island without understanding and addressing traumas of both communities.
Cyprus: The Belgian ‘Tool Box’ Revisited
M. Ergun Olgun, Dirk Rochtus
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 111-134
BI-ETHNIC Belgium has skillfully developed cooperation and concertation arrangements which meet even the EU’s rigid “one voice” requirement, taking into consideration the continuing increase in the powers and functions of its regions and communities. Belgium consequently offers a huge box of tools, particularly to bi-ethnic or multi ethnic partnership states. Probably the most distinguishing differences between Cyprus and Belgium are the chronic conflictual relationship between the two ex-partner peoples of Cyprus , and the absence there of a common vision of co-existence and equal power-sharing. If the two sides in Cyprus could be incentivized enough to sincerely opt for equal partnership, the Belgian multi-tier governance experience, despite some significant differences between the two lands, could still offer some practical lessons from which eager parties in Cyprus could benefit.
Dealing with Iran : Confrontation or Negotiation?
Mahmood Monshipouri, Banafsheh Keynoush
Insight Turkey , Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 135-157
CONFLICTING dynamics and power calculations within the Bush administration have given rise to contradictory signals coming from Washington regarding how best to deal with the Iranian puzzle. The situation indicates a lack of strategic coherence that could tip the balance toward a military showdown with Iran . If anything, the 2001 and 2003 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq , which have essentially altered the balance of power to Iran ’s advantage, represent a total disregard for the ensuing negative consequences for the region. Under such circumstances, the absence of serious, direct talks with Iran have the potential to lead to greater momentum for war. In this paper, we set out to examine the internal and regional consequences of a U.S. attack on Iran , while asserting that the benefits of cooperation outweigh the costs of military confrontation. Negotiating with Iran is the only reasonable solution to the crisis confronting these two powers, and
U.S.-Iran rapprochement can have a stabilizing impact on the entire region. Conversely, the implications of confrontation will be horrendously costly and profound.
For details: www.insightturkey. com
Ihsan DAGI
Editor-in-Chief
Insight Turkey
Resit Galip Cad. Hereke Sokak No: 10
GOP/Cankaya, 06700 Ankara , Turkey
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E-mail: insight@insightturk ey.com
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